Stress-Lifetime Joint Distribution Model for Performance

University of Richmond
UR Scholarship Repository
Math and Computer Science Faculty Publications
Math and Computer Science
12-2012
Stress-Lifetime Joint Distribution Model for
Performance Degradation Failure
Quan Sun
Yanzhen Tang
Jing Feng
Paul Kvam
University of Richmond, [email protected]
Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarship.richmond.edu/mathcs-faculty-publications
Part of the Applied Statistics Commons, and the Statistical Models Commons
Recommended Citation
Sun, Quan, Yanzhen Tang, Jing Feng, and Paul Kvam. "Stress-Lifetime Joint Distribution Model for Performance Degradation Failure."
Information: An International Interdisciplinary Journal 15, no. 12 (December 2012): 5839-846.
This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Math and Computer Science at UR Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for
inclusion in Math and Computer Science Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of UR Scholarship Repository. For more information,
please contact [email protected].
6WUHVV/LIHWLPH-RLQW'LVWULEXWLRQ0RGHOIRU
3HUIRUPDQFH'HJUDGDWLRQ)DLOXUH
4XDQ6XQ<DQ]KHQ7DQJ-LQJ)HQJ
&ROOHJHRI,QIRUPDWLRQ6\VWHPDQG0DQDJHPHQW
1DWLRQDO8QLYHUVLW\RI'HIHQVH7HFKQRORJ\
&KDQJVKD&KLQD
VXQTXDQ#QXGWHGXFQ
$EVWUDFW²7KH KLJK HQHUJ\ GHQVLW\ VHOIKHDOLQJ PHWDOOL]HG ILOP
SXOVHFDSDFLWRUKDVEHHQDSSOLHGWRDOONLQGVRIODVHUIDFLOLWLHVIRU
WKHLUSRZHUFRQGLWLRQLQJV\VWHPVXQGHUVHYHUDOVWUHVVOHYHOVVXFK
DV N9 N9 DQG N9 ZKRVH UHOLDELOLW\ SHUIRUPDQFH DQG
PDLQWHQDQFH FRVWV DUH DIIHFWHG E\ WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI FDSDFLWRUV
'XHWRWKHFRVWVDQGWLPHUHVWULFWLRQKRZWRDVVHVVWKHUHOLDELOLW\
RIKLJKO\UHOLDEOHFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUDFHUWDLQVWUHVVOHYHODVVRRQDV
SRVVLEOH EHFRPHV D FKDOOHQJH $FFHOHUDWHG GHJUDGDWLRQ WHVW
SURYLGHVDZD\WRSUHGLFWLWVOLIHWLPHDQGUHOLDELOLW\HIIHFWLYHO\$
PRGHO FDOOHG VWUHVVOLIHWLPH MRLQW GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO DQG DQ
DQDO\VLV PHWKRG EDVHG RQ DFFHOHUDWHG GHJUDGDWLRQ GDWD RI
PHWDOOL]HGILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRUVDUHGHVFULEHGLQWKLVSDSHU$OVR
GHVFULEHG LV D PHWKRG IRU HVWLPDWLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WLPH WR
IDLOXUH7KHHVWLPDWRUVRIWKHXQNQRZQSDUDPHWHUVLQWKHPRGHO
DUH JLYHQ UHVSHFWLYHO\ %RWK WKH IDLOXUH SUREDELOLW\ GHQVLW\
IXQFWLRQSGIDQGWKHFXPXODWLYHGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQFGIFDQ
EH SUHVHQWHG E\ WKH PRGHO %DVHG RQ WKHVH HVWLPDWRUV DQG WKH
SGIFGIWKHUHOLDELOLW\PRGHORIPHWDOOL]HGILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRUVLV
REWDLQHG $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH UHOLDELOLW\ PRGHO WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI
FDSDFLWRUV XQGHU VWUHVV N9 WKDW VXUYLYH WR VKRWV LV
SUHVHQWHG 7KHQ WKH .ROPRJRURY6PLUQRY WHVW LV SHUIRUPHG WR
YDOLGDWH WKH PRGHO 7KH UHVXOW VKRZV WKDW WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI
FDSDFLWRUVXQGHUDFHUWDLQVWUHVVOHYHOFDQEHDVVHVVHGDVVRRQDV
SRVVLEOHE\XVLQJWKHPRGHORQFHWKHHVWLPDWRUVRIWKHXQNQRZQ
SDUDPHWHUVLQWKHPRGHODUHREWDLQHG
.H\ZRUGVVWUHVVOLIHWLPH MRLQW GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO DFFHOHUDWHG
GHJUDGDWLRQGDWDPHWDOOL]HILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRUUHOLDELOLW\
,
,1752'8&7,21
$ KLJK SRZHU SXOVHG HQHUJ\ V\VWHP ZKLFK FRQVLVWV RI
PDQ\HQHUJ\VWRUDJHFDSDFLWRUXQLWVLVWKHNH\FRPSRQHQWRI
PDQ\ WHVWLQJ IDFLOLW\ IRU FRPSOLFDWHG VFLHQFH SURMHFWV $W
SUHVHQW WKRXVDQGV RI FDSDFLWRUV ZLWK KLJK VSHFLILF VWRUDJH LQ
SDUDOOHO XQGHU VHYHUDO VWUHVV OHYHOV VXFK DV N9 N9 DQG
N9 VXSSO\ HQHUJ\ WR WKH IDFLOLWLHV RI LQHUWLDO FRQILQHPHQW
IXVLRQ,&)>@7KHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVHFDSDFLWRUVGLUHFWO\RU
LQGLUHFWO\DIIHFWVWKHUHOLDELOLW\SHUIRUPDQFHDQGPDLQWHQDQFH
FRVWVRIWKHHQWLUHV\VWHP'XHWRWKHFRVWVDQGWLPHUHVWULFWLRQ
KRZWRDVVHVVWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIKLJKO\UHOLDEOHFDSDFLWRUVXQGHU
DFHUWDLQVWUHVVOHYHODVVRRQDVSRVVLEOHEHFRPHVDFKDOOHQJH
7KH HOHFWURGHV RI VHOIKHDOLQJ PHWDOOL]HG ILOP SXOVH
FDSDFLWRU DUH YDSRUGHSRVLWHG PHWDOOL]DWLRQ GLUHFWO\ RQ WKH
GLHOHFWULF VXEVWUDWH 7\SLFDOO\ WKH PHWDO LV DOXPLQXP RU DQ
DOOR\ DQG WKH WKLFNQHVV RI WKH OD\HU LV QPV :KHQ D
GLHOHFWULF EUHDNGRZQ RFFXUV WKH KLJK FXUUHQW GHQVLW\ LQ WKH
PHWDOOL]HG HOHFWURGH DURXQG WKH EUHDNGRZQ VLWH ZLOO
978-1-4577-1232-6/11/$26.00 ©2011 IEEE
3DXO.YDP
6FKRRORI,QGXVWULDODQG6\VWHPV(QJLQHHULQJ
*HRUJLD,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\
$WODQWD86$
LPPHGLDWHO\YDSRUL]HWKHPHWDOOL]DWLRQ7KHEUHDNGRZQRIWKH
GLHOHFWULFUHVXOWVLQWKHORVVRIDVPDOODPRXQWRIHOHFWURGH7KH
RQO\ SHUPDQHQW FKDQJH LQ WKH FDSDFLWRU LV WKH ORVV RI D VPDOO
DPRXQW RI FDSDFLWDQFH > @ ([SHFWLQJ VHOIKHDOLQJ WKH
GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI PHWDO VSUD\LQJ DOVR UHVXOWV LQ WKH ORVV RI
FDSDFLWDQFH>@
7KH ³VHOIKHDOLQJ´ SURFHVV RI PHWDOOL]HG ILOP SXOVH
FDSDFLWRU LV PRGHOHG DV D FRXQWLQJ SURFHVV :H FDQ FRQVLGHU
WKH SURFHVV DV D KRPRJHQHRXV RU QRQKRPRJHQHRXV 3RLVVRQ
SURFHVV ^1 W W t ` ZLWK LQWHQVLW\ IXQFWLRQ O W :LWKLQ WKH
IL[HG VWUHVV OHYHO ZH FDQ DVVXPH WKDW WKH FDSDFLWDQFH ORVV RI
RQH VHOIKHDOLQJ LV \L L " DQG ^ \L L "` DUH
LQGHSHQGHQW DQG LGHQWLFDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG DV QRUPDO UDQGRP
YDULDEOHVWKDWLV \L a 1 P \ V \ ,Q > W @ WKH FDSDFLWDQFH GHJUDGDWLRQ RI FDSDFLWRU LV [W DQG
1 W [W ¦\
L
L ,I PW W
³ O W GW WKHPHDQIXQFWLRQRIGHJUDGDWLRQLV
(> [W @
PW ˜ (> \L @
P \ PW 7KHJUHDWHUWKHYROWDJHWKHIDVWHUWKHFDSDFLWDQFHGHFUHDVHV
:KHQ WKH FDSDFLWDQFH ORVV LV ZLWKLQ VSHFLILHG OLPLW WKH
SHUIRUPDQFHRIFDSDFLWRULVVWHDG\,IWKHFDSDFLWDQFHORVVJRHV
EH\RQG WKH VSHFLILHG OLPLW WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI FDSDFLWRU
EHFRPHV GHWHULRUDWLYH 7KH GHJUDGDWLRQ RI GLHOHFWULF DQG WKH
UDWH RI FDSDFLWDQFH ORVV VWDUW WR LQFUHDVH UDSLGO\ > @ 7KH
HQGRIOLIHIRUPHWDOOL]HGHOHFWURGHFDSDFLWRULVGHILQHGDVWKH
PD[LPXPSHUFHQWDJHORVVRIWKHFDSDFLWDQFHW\SLFDOO\>
@ )RU PHWDOOL]HG ILOP SXOVH FDSDFLWRU WKHOLIHWLPH LV GHILQHG
DV WKH QXPEHU RI UHSHWLWLYH FKDUJHGLVFKDUJH F\FOHV RQ WKH
FRQGLWLRQ WKDW WKH ORVV RI FDSDFLWDQFH LV ZLWKLQ RI WKH
RULJLQDOFDSDFLWDQFH
1RZ ZH XVH RI LQLWLDO FDSDFLWDQFH F DV WKH IDLOXUH
FULWHULRQ O WKDWLV O ˜ F 7KHQWKHFGIRIFDSDFLWRUIDLOXUH
FDQEHZULWWHQDV
) W 3^[W t O` ,,
$&&(/(5$7(''(*5$'$7,21(48$7,21
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH UHFHQW VWXGLHV >@ >@ >@ DQG >@ WKH
FDSDFLWDQFHORVVFDXVHGE\RQH³VHOIKHDOLQJ´LVSURSRUWLRQDOWR
WKH HQHUJ\ RI HOHFWULF ZHDNQHVVHV DEVRUSWLRQ WKURXJK VHOI
KHDOLQJ$QGWKHHQHUJ\RIHOHFWULFZHDNQHVVHVDEVRUSWLRQFDQ
EHJLYHQE\
: v G D 9 E ˈ
ZKHUH G LV WKH HOHFWURGH WKLFNQHVV 9 LV WKH YROWDJH DQG D DQG E DUHXQNQRZQSDUDPHWHUV
)URP DQG ZH FDQ DVVXPH WKDW P \
D9 E v : DQG
PÖ L WN P 6 W ( [W D9 PW :H FDOO WKH $FFHOHUDWHG 'HJUDGDWLRQ (TXDWLRQ RI WKH
PHWDOOL]HGILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRU
P W ¦\
)RUFRQYHQLHQFHZHGHILQH [9 W L 9
,QWKHFDVHRI
P
¦ [LMN PÖ L WN P M 7KH PHDQ IXQFWLRQ DQG YDULDQFH IXQFWLRQ RI FDSDFLWDQFH
GHJUDGDWLRQDUH
P9 W DO W9 E N9 E W V W O WV \ N W ZKLFKDUHOLQHDUIXQFWLRQVRI W VRWKHFGIRIFDSDFLWRUIDLOXUH
FDQEHZULWWHQDV
N
O ) W N N E ) 9 E W W N
N
WKHYDULDQFH V \ LVXQUHODWHGZLWKWKHVWUHVV7KHQZHFDQJHW
E
P
¦ [ LMN VÖ WN P M
)URP ^ PÖ L WN VÖ WN N
" Q` ZH FDQ JHW WKH
E
HVWLPDWRUV RI N9 DQG N ZLWK WKH JLYHQ VWUHVV 9L E\ OLQHDU
UHJUHVVLRQ IXUWKHU ZH FDQJHW WKH HVWLPDWRUV RI N DQG E %\
VXEVWLWXWLQJWKHHVWLPDWRUVRI N DQG E LQWRWKHPHWDOOL]HG
ILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRU¶VIDLOXUHPRGHOLVHVWDEOLVKHG:HFDOO
WKH6WUHVVOLIHWLPH-RLQW'LVWULEXWLRQ0RGHO
W VWUHVV 9 ,9 02'(/9$/,'$7,21
[9 W a 1 P9 W V W ZKHUH P9 W D9 E PW DQG V W PW ˜ 9DU> \L 9 @ V \ PW 7KHQDFFRUGLQJWRXQGHUVWUHVV 9 WKHFGIRIFDSDFLWRU
IDLOXUHFDQEHZULWWHQDV
)9 W D E O W V \ 3^[9 W t O`
)
)
ZKHUH PW D
V\
O P9 W V W 9 E PW O
V\
PW W
³ O W GW ,,, 5(/,$%,/,7<$66(660(17%$6('21$&&(/(5$7('
'(*5$'$7,21'$7$
:HFDQXVHDKRPRJHQHRXV3RLVVRQSURFHVVWRGHVFULEHWKH
SURFHVVRIPHWDOOL]HGILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRU¶VVHOIKHDOLQJWKDWLV
PW W
³ O GW
$IWHU REWDLQLQJ WKH HVWLPDWRUV RI N N DQG E ZH FDQ
DVVHVVWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUDFHUWDLQVWUHVV 9 E\
XVLQJWKHVWUHVVOLIHWLPHMRLQWGLVWULEXWLRQPRGHO%XWZHQHHG
WR IXUWKHU YDOLGDWH WKH PRGHO ZLWK D IHZ FDSDFLWDQFH
GHJUDGDWLRQ GDWD XQGHU VWUHVV 9 7KHUHIRUH ZH SHUIRUP WKH
.ROPRJRURY6PLUQRY WHVW WR FKHFN ZKHWKHU WKH FDSDFLWDQFH
GHJUDGDWLRQ GDWD XQGHU VWUHVV 9 FRPH IURP WKH QRUPDO
Ö
GLVWULEXWLRQZLWK P W NÖ 9 E W DQG V W NÖ W O W $VVXPH WKDW WKHUH DUH T NLQGV RI VWUHVV OHYHO WKDW LV
9 9 " 9T DQG XQGHU HYHU\ VWUHVV OHYHO WKHUH DUH P
VDPSOHV IRU WKH FDSDFLWDQFH GHJUDGDWLRQ WHVW 'XULQJ WKH WHVW
SHULRGLFPHDVXUHPHQWVRIWKHFDSDFLWDQFHZHUHPDGHW\SLFDOO\
VKRWV 7KH UHSHWLWLYH FKDUJHGLVFKDUJH FOF\HV ZHUH
FRQWLQXHG XS WR Q VKRWV WKHQ ZH FDQ JHW WKH IROORZLQJ
FDSDFLWDQFHGHJUDGDWLRQGDWD
^ [LMN WN L " T M " P N " Q` )RU WKH FDVH RI L L " T XVLQJ WKH GDWD
^ [LMN WN M " P N " Q` ZH FDQ JHW WKH
HVWLPDWRUV RI FDSDFLWDQFH GHJUDGDWLRQ¶V PHDQ DQG YDULDQFH
ZLWKLQWKHPHDVXUHPHQWSHULRGV
$VVXPH WKDW WKHUH DUH P VDPSOHV IRU WKH FDSDFLWDQFH
GHJUDGDWLRQ WHVW XQGHU VWUHVV 9 $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH WHVWLQJ
PHWKRG SURSRVHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH
PHDVXUHPHQW SHULRGV ZH FDQ JHW WKH IROORZLQJ FDSDFLWDQFH
GHJUDGDWLRQGDWD
^ [ MN WN M " P N " Q` 7ZRK\SRWKHVHVDUHSURSRVHGIRUWKHWHVW
+ ) [ ) [ + ) [ z ) [ ZKHUH ) [ LVWKHHPSLULFDOFGIRIWKHFDSDFLWDQFHGHJUDGDWLRQ
GDWD XQGHU VWUHVV 9 ) [ LV WKH QRUPDO FGI ZLWK
Ö
P W NÖ 9 E W DQG V W NÖ W ,QWKHWHVWWKHWHVWVWDWLVWLFLV>@
'P
VXS ) [ MN ) [ MN [ MN
M M ½
­
PD[ ® ) [ MN ) [ MN ¾
P
P¿
¯
ZKHUH M " P N " Q 7KHQ ZH FRPSDUH 'P ZLWK GD ZKLFK LV WKH FXWRII YDOXH
IRUGHWHUPLQLQJLI 'P LVVLJQLILFDQW,I 'P GD WKHWHVWIDLOV
WR UHMHFW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV + QDPHO\ WKH FDSDFLWDQFH
GHJUDGDWLRQ GDWD XQGHU VWUHVV 9 FRPH IURP WKH QRUPDO
Ö
GLVWULEXWLRQZLWK P W NÖ 9 E W DQG V W NÖ W 9 '$7$$1$/<6,6,
:HZLOODQDO\]HWKHWHVWLQJGDWDRIRQHNLQGRIPHWDOOL]HG
ILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRUZKLFKFDQEHZRUNHGXQGHUVHYHUDOVWUHVV
OHYHOVLQWKH,&)IDFLOLW\7KLVNLQGRIFDSDFLWRUVLVWHVWHGXQGHU
WKUHH VWUHVV OHYHOV YROWDJH 9 N9 9 N9 DQG
9 N9 7KH WHVWLQJ GDWD XQGHU VWUHVV 9 DUH XVHG WR
YDOLGDWH WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI FDSDFLWRUV XQGHU VWUHVV 9 ZKLFK LV
DVVHVVHG E\ WKH VWUHVVOLIHWLPH MRLQW GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO 7KH
IDLOXUH FULWHULRQ RI FDSDFLWRU LV O ȝ) 8QGHU VWUHVV 9 WKHUHDUHFDSDFLWRUVWHVWHGIRUSHUIRUPDQFHGHJUDGDWLRQDQG
XQGHU VWUHVVHV 9 DQG 9 WKHUH DUH FDSDFLWRUV WHVWHG
UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH WHVWLQJ GDWD XQGHU VWUHVVHV 9 DQG 9 DUH
VKRZQLQ)LJ
) W )
NÖ EÖ O 9 W W NÖ
NÖ
) u W u W )LJ VKRZV WKH FXUYH RI WKH IDLOXUH FGI RI WKLV NLQG RI
FDSDFLWRUVXQGHUVWUHVV 9 )LJXUH 7KHFXUYHRIWKHIDLOXUHFGIRIFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUVWUHVV 9 $FFRUGLQJWRZHFDQFDOFXODWHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIWKH
FDSDFLWRUVWKDWVXUYLYHWRVKRWV
5 ) )LJXUH $FFHOHUDWHGGHJUDGDWLRQGDWDRIPHWDOOL]HGILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRUV
8VLQJWKHDFFHOHUDWHGGHJUDGDWLRQGDWDRIWKHFDSDFLWRUVDQG
WKH IDFW WKDW N9E U DQG N9E U ZH REWDLQ WKH HVWLPDWRUV
RI U U DQG N UÖ UÖ NÖ %HFDXVH
U
U
9 E
9
WKHUHIRUHZHKDYH
EÖ
NÖ
UÖ
OQ Ö U
9
OQ
9
UÖ
u EÖ
9
6XEVWLWXWH WKHVH HVWLPDWRUV LQWR DQG ZH REWDLQ WKH
IDLOXUHFGIRIWKLVNLQGRIFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUVWUHVV 9 )LJXUH 7HVWLQJGDWDRIPHWDOOL]HGILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUVWUHVV 9 8VLQJWKHWHVWLQJGDWDXQGHUVWUHVV 9 ZKLFKDUHVKRZQLQ
)LJ DQG ZH REWDLQ WKH WHVW VWDWLVWLFV ZLWKLQ WKH
PHDVXUHPHQWSHULRGV7KHWHVWVWDWLVWLFVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH,
7$%/(,
7+(7(6767$7,67,&6:,7+,17+(0($685(0(173(5,2'6
W u
'Pc W u
'Pc :KHQ WKH VLJQLILFDQFH OHYHO D WKH FXWRII YDOXH
G 2EYLRXVO\ DOO RI WKH WHVW VWDWLVWLFV DUH OHVV
WKDQ G 6R WKH WHVWLQJ GDWD XQGHU VWUHVV 9 FRPH IURP WKH
5()(5(1&(6
Ö
QRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK P W NÖ9E W DQG V W NÖ W &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH PRGHO LV UHDVRQDEOH DQG LW FDQ EH XVHG WR
DVVHVVWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUDFHUWDLQVWUHVVOHYHO
>@ - % (QQLV ) : 0DF'RXJDOO 5 $ &RRSHU DQG - %DWHV ³6HOI
KHDOLQJ SXOVH FDSDFLWRUV IRU WKH 1DWLRQDO ,JQLWLRQ )DFLOLW\ 1,)´ ,Q
3URFHHGLQJV RI WK ,((( ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 3XOVHG 3RZHU &RQIHUHQFHSS
>@ + +H\ZDQJ ³3K\VLFDO DQG FKHPLFDO SURFHVV LQ VHOIFXULQJ SODVWLF
FDSDFLWRUV´&ROORLGDQG3RO\PHU6FLHQFHYROSS
>@ ' * 6KDZ ³$ FKDQJLQJ FDSDFLWRU WHFKQRORJ\ IDLOXUH PHFKDQLVP DQG
GHVLJQ LQQRYDWLRQV´ ,((( 7UDQVDFWLRQV RQ ,QGXVWULDO (OHFWURQLFV YRO
SS
>@ ' ' *XR ³:HDU DQDO\VLV DQG GHJUDGDWLRQ PHFKDQLVP RI ILOP
PHWDOOL]HGFDSDFLWRU´3RZHU&DSDFLWRU&KLQDYROSS
>@ :-6DUMHDQW-=LUQKHOGDQG):0DF'RXJDOO³&DSDFLWRUV´,(((
7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3ODVPD6FLHQFHYROSS
>@ :-6DUMHDQWDQG':/DUVRQ³(QHUJ\VWRUDJHFDSDFLWRUVDJLQJDQG
GLDJQRVWLF DSSURDFKHV IRU OLIH YDOLGDWLRQ´ ,((( 7UDQVDFWLRQV RQ
0DJQHWLFVYROSS
>@ ;'DDQG)&/LQ³7HVWDQGUHVHDUFKRQSURSHUWLHVRIPHWDOOL]HGILOP
SXOVHGFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUKLJKHOHFWULFVWUHVV´+LJK9ROWDJH(QJLQHHULQJ
YROSS
>@ =;+X DQG) 4 0X³6HOIKHDOLQJ PHFKDQLVPDQGLPSURYHPHQWRI
UHOLDELOLW\ RI PHWDOOL]HG ILOP FDSDFLWRUV´ (OHFWURQLF &RPSRQHQWV 0DWHULDOVYROSS
>@ 4 6XQ - / =KRX = =KRQJ - < =KDR DQG ; / 'XDQ ³*DXVV
3RLVVRQ MRLQW GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO IRU GHJUDGDWLRQ IDLOXUH´ ,(((
7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3ODVPD6FLHQFHYROQRSS
>@ - < =KDR DQG ) /LX ³5HOLDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH PHWDOOL]HG ILOP
FDSDFLWRUVIURPGHJUDGDWLRQGDWD´0LFURHOHFWURQLFV5HOLDELOLW\YRO
SS
>@ 6 6 0DR - / :DQJ ' + 6KL + / )HL DQG * 3 *H 6WDWLVWLFV
+DQGERRN%HLMLQJ6FLHQFH3XEOLVKSS
9, 6800$5,=($1'&21&/86,21
:KLOH GHDOLQJ ZLWK SHUIRUPDQFH GHJUDGDWLRQ IDLOXUH LW LV
LPSRUWDQWWRDQDO\]HWKHGDWDIURPDFFHOHUDWHGGHJUDGDWLRQWHVW
7KLVSDSHUGHVFULEHVWKHEDVLFLGHDVRQDFFHOHUDWHGGHJUDGDWLRQ
WHVWDQGJLYHVWKHVWUHVVOLIHWLPHMRLQWGLVWULEXWLRQPRGHOEDVHG
RQ DFFHOHUDWHG GHJUDGDWLRQ WHVW 2QFH WKH HVWLPDWRUV RI WKH
XQNQRZQ SDUDPHWHUV LQ WKH PRGHO DUH REWDLQHG WKH UHOLDELOLW\
RIPHWDOOL]HGILOPSXOVHFDSDFLWRUVXQGHUDFHUWDLQVWUHVVOHYHO
FDQEHDVVHVVHGDVVRRQDVSRVVLEOHE\XVLQJWKHPRGHO$WODVW
RQO\DIHZGHJUDGDWLRQGDWDXQGHUWKHVWUHVVOHYHODUHQHHGHGWR
YDOLGDWH WKH UHVXOW ,Q WKH IXWXUH ZH ZLOO IXUWKHU FRPSDUH WKH
VWUHVVOLIHWLPH MRLQW GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO ZLWK WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO
UHOLDELOLW\PRGHO
$&.12:/('*0(17
7KH DXWKRUV ZRXOG OLNH WR DFNQRZOHGJH WKH UHVHDUFKHUV DW
&KLQD $FDGHP\ RI (QJLQHHULQJ 3K\VLFV ZKR SURYLGHG
FDSDFLWRUVDQGDODUJHQXPEHURIGDWD